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21 September 2021

Taleb Vs. Taleb: A Question Of Time, Lindy And Portfolios

Taleb Vs. Taleb: A Question Of Time, Lindy And Portfolios

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It’s not a very exclusive crowd and many more erudite people than me have received the patented “Imbecile” tweet that signals an imminent Taleb block?

Taleb, prone to making extravagant claims and denouncing everyone from journalists and politicians to economists and foreign policy experts, now seems to have joined the ranks of other well-known Bitcoin skeptics: Robert Shiller, Paul Krugman, Nouriel Roubini, and — somewhat puzzlingly — the world’s foremost expert on hyperinflations, Steve Hanke.

Worse is that Taleb might be one of the first vocal supporters to unlearn what he once knew, or perhaps pretended to know; in 2018 Taleb wrote the preface to Saifedean Ammous’ “The Bitcoin Standard”.

When was the last time Taleb transacted using bitcoin, I wonder.

Did he ever write code or build something that uses Bitcoin?

A few chapters into this otherwise great book (published around the same time as his infamous preface to “The Bitcoin Standard”) we get a personal anecdote.

He saw then the very same problems that he now echoes in his new paper to establish bitcoin’s long-term value at zero.

But in 2018 he didn’t think those same problems were problems.

Another argument that pervades Taleb’s writing is that time is the ultimate test of everything.

The only thing that matters, Taleb repeatedly taught me, is time.

Taleb is at his most persuasive when he chants the Lindy effect – the tendency of things that have already endured the test of time to last even longer.

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